leaguenomics

The draft · manager behavior

How much of a great draft is just staying healthy?

How much your draft class actually produces depends as much on staying healthy as on who you picked. And durability is something you can draft for.

Every draft here gets a grade. Each pick is priced against what the position actually returned that season, so a manager who lands value early scores well and one who reaches scores poorly. Plot that grade against the games those drafted players went on to miss, and the line is steep. The more your roster spent in street clothes, the worse the same draft looks.

Availability is a huge part of that grade, and only some of it is luck. A torn knee in Week 3 is not a draft mistake. But a player with a recent injury history carries more of that risk into the next season, and a durable player carries less. Switch the chart below to Adjusted for injuries to see how much of a draft grade is really health, then decide how much of it you want to steer on draft day.

452
manager seasons across 43 redraft leagues
36%
of a raw draft grade moves with health
2%
left once you adjust for injuries
Draft grade
Color
Top quartileSecond quartileThird quartileBottom quartileTrend

Across 452 manager seasons of real redraft leagues, about 36 percent of the spread in draft grades tracks nothing but games missed. Adjust for it and that share falls to roughly 2 percent. Health is not a footnote to your draft. It is a large share of what your draft turns out to be worth.

Skill still counts. League champions grade above the field even after the adjustment, 165 points to -17, so good drafting pays. Think of it like a fund manager’s year, where some of the return is the call and some is the market showing up. Durability is the part of that market you can actually position for. Weigh injury risk the way you weigh upside, and you keep more of the draft grade you thought you earned.

How it is measured

One dot is one manager in one season. The horizontal axis counts the regular-season games missed by the players that manager drafted. The vertical axis is the draft grade: every pick priced against the value its position returned that year, summed for the roster. The health-adjusted grade replaces each drafted player’s actual output with a pace-based estimate that removes time lost to injury, then re-grades. Only full-roster redraft leagues are included, since dynasty draft decisions play out across many seasons and are not comparable to a single-season grade. Names of people and leagues are never shown.

43 redraft league seasons · 452 manager seasons · updated August 2026

Show the data as a table
SeasonTeamsGames missedGradeAdjustedFinish
2012816336.2239.21st 🏆
2012818272.9262.64th
2012813173.630.22nd
2012824134.4170.55th
201283697.5166.33rd
2012830-150.9-139.96th
2012837-308.2-215.17th
2012827-556.7-513.88th
2012610168.869.65th
2012624111.9148.62nd
201261796.788.11st 🏆
2012615-3.4-53.84th
2012628-147-99.43rd
2012629-227.5-153.16th
2015101269.6672nd
201510050.30.35th
2015101127.411.21st 🏆
201510616.9-6.67th
2015102711.936.33rd
2015107-3.8-176th
20151020-6.13.84th
20151028-12.56.69th
20151025-61.5-42.110th
20151032-91.4-59.88th
20161036279.7266.11st 🏆
20161027211.772.54th
2016103178.924.29th
2016104951.5171.23rd
2016101927.1-129.75th
2016103311.4-80.98th
20161034-59.3-136.910th
20161052-71.147.12nd
20161052-122.6-6.86th
20161060-408.1-227.37th
20161215343.3202nd
2016121029939.39th
20161223204.129.711th
20161252168.2284.45th
2016123581.7894th
2016123065.7-22.38th
2016125943.7161.33rd
20161237-27.610.71st 🏆
20161251-232.1-138.710th
20161262-247.8-74.76th
20161261-309.4-66.87th
20161244-389.1-332.212th
2017825590.1466.41st 🏆
2017837179.9185.23rd
2017838135.566.32nd
2017848102.5215.75th
2017826-35.5-224.67th
2017849-200.6-185.44th
2017845-232.1-89.56th
2017852-540.9-434.68th
20171227332.7146.35th
20171224313.1214.96th
20171246135.2236.63rd
20171226130.2-117th
2017123490.1107.312th
2017124356.8-22.81st 🏆
2017122440.2-95.82nd
20171237-79.7-111.411th
20171242-121-165.810th
20171261-193.686.48th
20171258-314.5-141.39th
20171252-389.7-243.24th
20171024488.4405.68th
20171020289.7162.27th
20171033259.8194.42nd
20171033111.510.35th
2017102823.3-51.89th
20171045-46.846.410th
20171063-223.412.83rd
20171053-228.2-223.71st 🏆
20171059-278.2-188.14th
20171045-396.8-367.56th
20181020391.5178.65th
20181037213.3241.12nd
20181028199.490.57th
2018103724.3-36.71st 🏆
20181048-0.1101.39th
20181027-2.8-127.54th
20181043-84.6122.26th
20181040-110.5-184.98th
20181072-287.237.83rd
20181029-341.9-422.410th
20181018417189.96th
20181026316.4173.41st 🏆
20181024183.454.12nd
2018102833.6-97.27th
20181048-4241.99th
20181036-73.1-105.68th
20181046-142-53.23rd
20181049-159.533.110th
20181041-203.6-91.35th
20181039-329.8-144.74th
2018827278.171.71st 🏆
2018835139.1985th
2018829127.8-14.58th
201884058.4154.34th
201884615.2152.76th
2018830-86.2-147.57th
2018840-170.4-318.73rd
2018858-361.74.12nd
20191014265.938.62nd
20191038258.61325th
2019105359297.43rd
2019105247.81541st 🏆
2019102223.6-110.14th
20191044-26.5-61.16th
20191043-67.2-37.48th
20191043-125.3-8.810th
20191046-163.4-54.39th
20191033-271-350.87th
2019825386.3272.11st 🏆
2019822155.68.37th
201982263.9-90.32nd
2019842-4332.54th
2019836-68.3-90.46th
2019840-89.8113.28th
2019841-114.2-55.93rd
2019840-290.7-189.65th
20191026268.1176.410th
20191043162.4170.44th
2019103091.8125.67th
2019102786.5-45.72nd
2019105962.1367.41st 🏆
2019104114.1-36.36th
201910271-146.99th
20191023-80.3-248.33rd
20191042-94.629.35th
20191056-511.5-392.18th
20191228360.6290.83rd
20191225248170.21st 🏆
201912481883369th
20191238127169.84th
2019121881-9.710th
20191224-8.386.812th
20191226-8.9-75.48th
20191260-100.841.86th
20191245-147.17.12nd
20191219-163.3-2707th
20191233-261.3-310.35th
20191224-314-437.611th
2020819518.4270.12nd
2020818289.240.18th
2020830125.930.71st 🏆
202083593.1-71.25th
202083970.4-17.64th
2020853-246.1-1516th
2020864-259.52367th
2020866-592-336.83rd
20201231186.647.21st 🏆
20201219167.2-47.95th
20201236128.385.13rd
20201248121.2187.79th
20201227116.13.811th
20201222102.3-87.112th
2020123824.7-35.94th
202012434.4205.62nd
20201239-31.4-9.18th
20201229-42.1-1497th
20201257-344.2-105.410th
20201265-431.7-95.66th
20201230260369.7
20201220207.611.71st 🏆
20201234199.4169.43rd
20201228197.278.2
20201224192.5-13.92nd
2020124053.3-10.7
2020123817.624.1
20201243-65.62.74th
20201227-109.3-217.1
20201251-267.1-21.7
20201240-293.3-315.8
20201251-392.4-75.4
20201045532.73472nd
20201042156.2-109.94th
20201031154.3-40.75th
2020105478.223.73rd
2020105233.9186th
20201055-1.816.48th
20201041-102.6-2187th
20201061-160.534.99th
20201087-254.1-39.610th
20201069-436.4-32.51st 🏆
20211217485.1251.33rd
20211240407.5351.42nd
20211216362164.26th
20211225153.616.84th
2021122887-211st 🏆
2021122865-60.78th
2021123643.457.67th
20211250-72.193.811th
20211238-252-325.310th
20211269-354.412.75th
20211243-375.9-291.812th
20211267-549.6-248.79th
20211010357.7-6.71st 🏆
20211054226.5406.52nd
20211027126.132.95th
2021103866.8724th
2021102558.6-76.13rd
2021105332.9146.38th
20211049-112.515.26th
20211041-163.1-66.39th
20211043-197.6-249.77th
20211060-394.2-273.810th
20211243437.5475.81st 🏆
2021121638886.44th
20211240265216.92nd
20211241190.450.6
20211246163.7128.43rd
20211252-1.438.3
20211246-70.6-76.78th
20211233-74.1-148.5
20211248-151-70.75th
20211241-268.8-221.57th
20211270-380.8-175.46th
20211275-497.1-303.4
20211025314-19.33rd
20211022219.1-109.21st 🏆
20211042163.3144.310th
20211061144.4814th
2021106685195.16th
20211069-64.416.38th
20211051-88.2-172.19th
20211062-101-36.72nd
20211061-101.312.25th
20211089-571.4-112.17th
20221025432.53644th
20221029240.4181.32nd
20221026213.4120.53rd
2022103211.938.15th
20221037-78.6-97.27th
20221021-86-251.38th
20221034-105.7-926th
20221028-191.2-146.31st 🏆
20221046-196.471.710th
20221041-241-188.59th
20221033481.8456.51st 🏆
20221032218.4205.23rd
2022102074.6-100.55th
2022103152.632.24th
2022104551.1161.42nd
20221032-29.1-75.37th
20221036-56.4-83.98th
20221031-136.5-170.16th
20221047-277.3-102.69th
20221039-379.8-322.510th
20221027525.7260.42nd
20221033272.3177.76th
20221037208.235.35th
20221042177.9183.24th
20221042139.6-25.71st 🏆
2022105575.3112.68th
20221056-116.756.33rd
20221058-178.7-172.57th
20221073-523.9-3779th
20221073-580.7-249.610th
20221231420.9260.31st 🏆
20221226389.6232.52nd
20221234323.2227.23rd
20221222302.1106.8
20221240173.868.4
20221235-41.9-1847th
20221244-51.5-864th
20221241-136.2-55.7
20221245-226-166.46th
20221252-344.8-185.65th
20221267-377.3-85.6
20221269-429.5-130.98th
20231019432.2256.54th
20231030252.7214.72nd
20231013166.9-49.97th
2023103756103.51st 🏆
202310356.860.15th
20231037-53.426.83rd
20231031-73-78.19th
20231041-182.16.310th
20231035-187.1-208.26th
20231050-419.1-331.18th
20231231379302.76th
20231229284.82355th
20231223258.496.33rd
20231227120.4-42.67th
20231249-6.1112.312th
20231276-55.1362.11st 🏆
20231238-76.4-99.18th
20231237-89.2-81.811th
20231248-126.6-190.59th
20231249-162.2-257.14th
20231247-188.9-9210th
20231253-336.8-344.82nd
20231040248.3230.61st 🏆
20231030161.752.38th
20231040126.557.74th
20231062123.83512nd
2023104998.3114.36th
2023103753.415.53rd
2023104846.1-15.45th
20231054-220.1-169.510th
20231037-282.3-343.69th
20231062-356.6-293.27th
20231234405.1391.21st 🏆
20231223252.54.1
20231238201241.7
20231223109.3-126.14th
2023122139.6-103.78th
2023124129.859.32nd
2023124621.7-3.87th
20231235-21.6-14.86th
20231254-37.4-78.3
20231242-106.5-9.95th
20231264-365.9-41.53rd
20231263-527-318.3
20241031518.2448.11st 🏆
20241028288.1104.92nd
20241038236.7203.53rd
2024105427.643.85th
20241046-46.317.66th
20241037-85.6-138.34th
20241044-152.2-150.18th
20241044-177.8-179.57th
20241046-265-174.39th
20241063-343.7-175.510th
20241225495.3273.52nd
20241231296.5218.14th
20241227231.738.311th
2024124754.851.67th
2024123848.133.51st 🏆
2024122527.4-189.75th
2024125125.4117.83rd
20241249-109.1-192.18th
20241257-158.6-108.710th
20241257-240.237.66th
20241271-284.91.69th
20241262-386.2-281.312th
20241028270.983.22nd
20241044195.4193.91st 🏆
20241049142.1117.65th
2024104666.852.83rd
2024106155.1223.89th
2024105229.7-65.28th
20241036-64.7-227.24th
20241056-120.5-17.17th
20241067-239.6-17210th
20241068-334.9-189.96th
20241247538.1602.71st 🏆
20241242213.8215.7
20241240204.3226.68th
2024123595.2-24.1
2024124459.711.63rd
2024123115.2-195.7
20241241990.32nd
20241248-128.9-198.94th
20241257-165.9-35.75th
20241233-224.3-368.37th
20241254-277.9-132.7
20241259-338-191.16th
20241430383.1287.78th
20241442378334.410th
20241429292126.43rd
20241430232.1122.91st 🏆
20241443128.1208.612th
20241448108.52195th
2024144824.425.12nd
20241436-0.7-66.813th
20241437-21.8-101.44th
20241447-45.241.96th
20241440-199.8-259.414th
20241463-321.1-707th
20241445-445.8-509.99th
20241455-511-358.611th
20241026519131.52nd
20241044300.4198.75th
20241029270.4-48.33rd
20241058193.8240.14th
20241033-32.6-270.76th
20241062-68.1166.99th
20241052-136.9-26.11st 🏆
20241050-148.6-168.27th
20241076-354.3-134.38th
20241091-543.2-89.510th
20251019481.382.92nd
20251042421.5390.91st 🏆
20251017393.352.510th
2025105423.659.93rd
20251040-14.83.96th
20251039-63.2-63.58th
20251047-97.1-83.75th
20251068-261.9-20.84th
20251059-266.8-126.39th
20251071-616.7-295.47th
20251239419.1316.91st 🏆
20251213383.348.610th
20251246100.1132.83rd
2025124362.46.45th
20251235-8.3-51.94th
20251263-40.4219.92nd
20251254-51.110.27th
20251247-61.9-23.58th
20251225-112.2-271.99th
20251237-140.6-264.76th
20251270-185.795.212th
20251249-364.1-218.511th
20251023365.170.73rd
20251054263.6250.16th
20251030126.7-128.37th
20251057108.4197.41st 🏆
2025103849.3-729th
2025103328.7-183.24th
20251063-50.377.82nd
20251051-64.6-63.55th
20251082-350.8-140.48th
20251095-477.2-7.810th
20251048447.6509.82nd
20251044423.482.71st 🏆
20251048251235.43rd
20251046181.245.810th
20251051165.9133.55th
20251042164.8101.96th
20251076-175.557.97th
20251082-277.877.34th
20251076-539-396.69th
20251034-643.5-847.98th
20251222587.7334.41st 🏆
20251224286.1-11.58th
20251238185.8625th
20251258113.5305.93rd
2025124155.5-11.56th
20251240-25.6-155.82nd
20251264-33.126612th
20251245-99.7-28.211th
20251231-145.1-308.99th
20251256-212.8-104.410th
20251278-252-54.94th
20251274-459.9-293.47th
20251429448.6363.81st 🏆
20251427379.4177.18th
20251435142.1464th
20251441122.5183.53rd
2025145483.1305.310th
20251458-26.245.611th
20251444-47.4-201.614th
20251459-49.895.612th
20251440-50.9-133.96th
20251443-77.9-128.55th
20251444-137.8-153.47th
20251437-173.5-290.49th
20251466-232-16.22nd
20251463-380.2-292.813th