Every chart here can be run on your own league

Connect your league →

The draft · injury luck

Your draft grade is partly a health report.

A draft grade looks like pure skill. But about a third of the difference between a great one and a bad one lines up with how many games your players missed.

A man reclines on a rising marigold line with a cup of coffee beside him.
36%
of the spread in draft grades is games missed alone
2%
is left once every player is re-graded as if he never missed a week
183 pts
still separate champions from the field after that adjustment. Drafting pays.
Draft grade
Color
Top quartileSecond quartileThird quartileBottom quartileTrend

502 manager seasons · 48 redraft leagues · updated October 2026

What we see

  • The more games your drafted players miss, the worse your draft grade looks. About 36 percent of the spread in grades lines up with games missed alone.
  • Re-grade every pick as if the player had stayed healthy, and that link nearly vanishes, down to about 2 percent.
  • Drafting still matters. Even after the adjustment, champions grade far above the field: 165 points on average, against -17 for everyone else.

What it might mean for you

Don't read too much into one draft grade.

Like a fund's annual return, part of it is the call and part is the market. Health you never controlled moves it in both directions.

Price the risk you can see.

Nobody predicts a torn knee in Week 3. But a player the whole room knows is fragile isn't worth a full, healthy price.

How we measured this

We looked at 502 manager seasons across 48 finished redraft leagues on Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper. Each manager gets a draft grade: every pick is compared with what a typical player at that position returned that season, and the results are added up for the whole roster.

Next we count the regular-season games those drafted players missed. To see how much of the grade is really health, we re-grade every draft as if each player had stayed on the field at his normal pace, and compare the two.

Dynasty, keeper, auction, and best-ball leagues are left out, since their drafts play out differently. Names of people and leagues are never shown.

Show the data as a table
SeasonTeamsGames missedGradeAdjustedFinish
2012816336.2239.21st 🏆
2012818272.9262.64th
2012813173.630.22nd
2012824134.4170.55th
201283697.5166.33rd
2012830-150.9-139.96th
2012837-308.2-215.17th
2012827-556.7-513.88th
2012610168.869.65th
2012624111.9148.62nd
201261796.788.11st 🏆
2012615-3.4-53.84th
2012628-147-99.43rd
2012629-227.5-153.16th
2015101269.6672nd
201510050.30.35th
2015101127.411.21st 🏆
201510616.9-6.67th
2015102711.936.33rd
2015107-3.8-176th
20151020-6.13.84th
20151028-12.56.69th
20151025-61.5-42.110th
20151032-91.4-59.88th
20161036279.7266.11st 🏆
20161027211.772.54th
2016103178.924.29th
2016104951.5171.23rd
2016101927.1-129.75th
2016103311.4-80.98th
20161034-59.3-136.910th
20161052-71.147.12nd
20161052-122.6-6.86th
20161060-408.1-227.37th
20161215343.3202nd
2016121029939.39th
20161223204.129.711th
20161252168.2284.45th
2016123581.7894th
2016123065.7-22.38th
2016125943.7161.33rd
20161237-27.610.71st 🏆
20161251-232.1-138.710th
20161262-247.8-74.76th
20161261-309.4-66.87th
20161244-389.1-332.212th
2017825590.1466.41st 🏆
2017837179.9185.23rd
2017838135.566.32nd
2017848102.5215.75th
2017826-35.5-224.67th
2017849-200.6-185.44th
2017845-232.1-89.56th
2017852-540.9-434.68th
20171227332.7146.35th
20171224313.1214.96th
20171246135.2236.63rd
20171226130.2-117th
2017123490.1107.312th
2017124356.8-22.81st 🏆
2017122440.2-95.82nd
20171237-79.7-111.411th
20171242-121-165.810th
20171261-193.686.48th
20171258-314.5-141.39th
20171252-389.7-243.24th
20171024488.4405.68th
20171020289.7162.27th
20171033259.8194.42nd
20171033111.510.35th
2017102823.3-51.89th
20171045-46.846.410th
20171063-223.412.83rd
20171053-228.2-223.71st 🏆
20171059-278.2-188.14th
20171045-396.8-367.56th
20181020391.5178.65th
20181037213.3241.12nd
20181028199.490.57th
2018103724.3-36.71st 🏆
20181048-0.1101.39th
20181027-2.8-127.54th
20181043-84.6122.26th
20181040-110.5-184.98th
20181072-287.237.83rd
20181029-341.9-422.410th
20181018417189.96th
20181026316.4173.41st 🏆
20181024183.454.12nd
2018102833.6-97.27th
20181048-4241.99th
20181036-73.1-105.68th
20181046-142-53.23rd
20181049-159.533.110th
20181041-203.6-91.35th
20181039-329.8-144.74th
2018827278.171.71st 🏆
2018835139.1985th
2018829127.8-14.58th
201884058.4154.34th
201884615.2152.76th
2018830-86.2-147.57th
2018840-170.4-318.73rd
2018858-361.74.12nd
20191014265.938.62nd
20191038258.61325th
2019105359297.43rd
2019105247.81541st 🏆
2019102223.6-110.14th
20191044-26.5-61.16th
20191043-67.2-37.48th
20191043-125.3-8.810th
20191046-163.4-54.39th
20191033-271-350.87th
2019825386.3272.11st 🏆
2019822155.68.37th
201982263.9-90.32nd
2019842-4332.54th
2019836-68.3-90.46th
2019840-89.8113.28th
2019841-114.2-55.93rd
2019840-290.7-189.65th
20191026268.1176.410th
20191043162.4170.44th
2019103091.8125.67th
2019102786.5-45.72nd
2019105962.1367.41st 🏆
2019104114.1-36.36th
201910271-146.99th
20191023-80.3-248.33rd
20191042-94.629.35th
20191056-511.5-392.18th
20191228360.6290.83rd
20191225248170.21st 🏆
201912481883369th
20191238127169.84th
2019121881-9.710th
20191224-8.386.812th
20191226-8.9-75.48th
20191260-100.841.86th
20191245-147.17.12nd
20191219-163.3-2707th
20191233-261.3-310.35th
20191224-314-437.611th
2020819518.4270.12nd
2020818289.240.18th
2020830125.930.71st 🏆
202083593.1-71.25th
202083970.4-17.64th
2020853-246.1-1516th
2020864-259.52367th
2020866-592-336.83rd
20201231186.647.21st 🏆
20201219167.2-47.95th
20201236128.385.13rd
20201248121.2187.79th
20201227116.13.811th
20201222102.3-87.112th
2020123824.7-35.94th
202012434.4205.62nd
20201239-31.4-9.18th
20201229-42.1-1497th
20201257-344.2-105.410th
20201265-431.7-95.66th
20201230260369.7n/a
20201220207.611.71st 🏆
20201234199.4169.43rd
20201228197.278.2n/a
20201224192.5-13.92nd
2020124053.3-10.7n/a
2020123817.624.1n/a
20201243-65.62.74th
20201227-109.3-217.1n/a
20201251-267.1-21.7n/a
20201240-293.3-315.8n/a
20201251-392.4-75.4n/a
20201045532.73472nd
20201042156.2-109.94th
20201031154.3-40.75th
2020105478.223.73rd
2020105233.9186th
20201055-1.816.48th
20201041-102.6-2187th
20201061-160.534.99th
20201087-254.1-39.610th
20201069-436.4-32.51st 🏆
20211217485.1251.33rd
20211240407.5351.42nd
20211216362164.26th
20211225153.616.84th
2021122887-211st 🏆
2021122865-60.78th
2021123643.457.67th
20211250-72.193.811th
20211238-252-325.310th
20211269-354.412.75th
20211243-375.9-291.812th
20211267-549.6-248.79th
20211010357.7-6.71st 🏆
20211054226.5406.52nd
20211027126.132.95th
2021103866.8724th
2021102558.6-76.13rd
2021105332.9146.38th
20211049-112.515.26th
20211041-163.1-66.39th
20211043-197.6-249.77th
20211060-394.2-273.810th
20211243437.5475.81st 🏆
2021121638886.44th
20211240265216.92nd
20211241190.450.6n/a
20211246163.7128.43rd
20211252-1.438.3n/a
20211246-70.6-76.78th
20211233-74.1-148.5n/a
20211248-151-70.75th
20211241-268.8-221.57th
20211270-380.8-175.46th
20211275-497.1-303.4n/a
20211025314-19.33rd
20211022219.1-109.21st 🏆
20211042163.3144.310th
20211061144.4814th
2021106685195.16th
20211069-64.416.38th
20211051-88.2-172.19th
20211062-101-36.72nd
20211061-101.312.25th
20211089-571.4-112.17th
20221025432.53644th
20221029240.4181.32nd
20221026213.4120.53rd
2022103211.938.15th
20221037-78.6-97.27th
20221021-86-251.38th
20221034-105.7-926th
20221028-191.2-146.31st 🏆
20221046-196.471.710th
20221041-241-188.59th
20221033481.8456.51st 🏆
20221032218.4205.23rd
2022102074.6-100.55th
2022103152.632.24th
2022104551.1161.42nd
20221032-29.1-75.37th
20221036-56.4-83.98th
20221031-136.5-170.16th
20221047-277.3-102.69th
20221039-379.8-322.510th
20221027525.7260.42nd
20221033272.3177.76th
20221037208.235.35th
20221042177.9183.24th
20221042139.6-25.71st 🏆
2022105575.3112.68th
20221056-116.756.33rd
20221058-178.7-172.57th
20221073-523.9-3779th
20221073-580.7-249.610th
20221231420.9260.31st 🏆
20221226389.6232.52nd
20221234323.2227.23rd
20221222302.1106.8n/a
20221240173.868.4n/a
20221235-41.9-1847th
20221244-51.5-864th
20221241-136.2-55.7n/a
20221245-226-166.46th
20221252-344.8-185.65th
20221267-377.3-85.6n/a
20221269-429.5-130.98th
20221038426.3260.23rd
20221046291.5276.81st 🏆
20221038286.3131.82nd
2022102923.4-283.15th
20221047-57-38n/a
20221064-71.2168.64th
20221050-72.9-22.76th
20221061-264.2-68.5n/a
20221051-271.2-257.37th
20221063-290.1-167.48th
20231019432.2256.54th
20231030252.7214.72nd
20231013166.9-49.97th
2023103756103.51st 🏆
202310356.860.15th
20231037-53.426.83rd
20231031-73-78.19th
20231041-182.16.310th
20231035-187.1-208.26th
20231050-419.1-331.18th
20231231379302.76th
20231229284.82355th
20231223258.496.33rd
20231227120.4-42.67th
20231249-6.1112.312th
20231276-55.1362.11st 🏆
20231238-76.4-99.18th
20231237-89.2-81.811th
20231248-126.6-190.59th
20231249-162.2-257.14th
20231247-188.9-9210th
20231253-336.8-344.82nd
20231052262.7338.91st 🏆
20231043211.4124.47th
20231039208.7116.53rd
20231039141135.14th
20231034110.921.7n/a
2023103738.210.98th
20231039-20.4-183.62nd
20231048-171.2-62.8n/a
20231067-354.2-79.26th
20231053-428.4-4225th
20231040248.3230.61st 🏆
20231030161.752.38th
20231040126.557.74th
20231062123.83512nd
2023104998.3114.36th
2023103753.415.53rd
2023104846.1-15.45th
20231054-220.1-169.510th
20231037-282.3-343.69th
20231062-356.6-293.27th
20231234405.1391.21st 🏆
20231223252.54.1n/a
20231238201241.7n/a
20231223109.3-126.14th
2023122139.6-103.78th
2023124129.859.32nd
2023124621.7-3.87th
20231235-21.6-14.86th
20231254-37.4-78.3n/a
20231242-106.5-9.95th
20231264-365.9-41.53rd
20231263-527-318.3n/a
20241031518.2448.11st 🏆
20241028288.1104.92nd
20241038236.7203.53rd
2024105427.643.85th
20241046-46.317.66th
20241037-85.6-138.34th
20241044-152.2-150.18th
20241044-177.8-179.57th
20241046-265-174.39th
20241063-343.7-175.510th
20241225495.3273.52nd
20241231296.5218.14th
20241227231.738.311th
2024124754.851.67th
2024123848.133.51st 🏆
2024122527.4-189.75th
2024125125.4117.83rd
20241249-109.1-192.18th
20241257-158.6-108.710th
20241257-240.237.66th
20241271-284.91.69th
20241262-386.2-281.312th
20241028270.983.22nd
20241044195.4193.91st 🏆
20241049142.1117.65th
2024104666.852.83rd
2024106155.1223.89th
2024105229.7-65.28th
20241036-64.7-227.24th
20241056-120.5-17.17th
20241067-239.6-17210th
20241068-334.9-189.96th
20241247538.1602.71st 🏆
20241242213.8215.7n/a
20241240204.3226.68th
2024123595.2-24.1n/a
2024124459.711.63rd
2024123115.2-195.7n/a
20241241990.32nd
20241248-128.9-198.94th
20241257-165.9-35.75th
20241233-224.3-368.37th
20241254-277.9-132.7n/a
20241259-338-191.16th
20241022375.2139.72nd
20241035360.5298.85th
20241023229.133.37th
20241031225.4147.19th
2024105125.5206.94th
2024105714.7142.51st 🏆
202410422.2110th
20241051-201.9-145.66th
20241057-434.5-198.93rd
20241056-595.3-624.88th
20241430383.1287.78th
20241442378334.410th
20241429292126.43rd
20241430232.1122.91st 🏆
20241443128.1208.612th
20241448108.52195th
2024144824.425.12nd
20241436-0.7-66.813th
20241437-21.8-101.44th
20241447-45.241.96th
20241440-199.8-259.414th
20241463-321.1-707th
20241445-445.8-509.99th
20241455-511-358.611th
20241026519131.52nd
20241044300.4198.75th
20241029270.4-48.33rd
20241058193.8240.14th
20241033-32.6-270.76th
20241062-68.1166.99th
20241052-136.9-26.11st 🏆
20241050-148.6-168.27th
20241076-354.3-134.38th
20241091-543.2-89.510th
20251019481.382.92nd
20251042421.5390.91st 🏆
20251017393.352.510th
2025105423.659.93rd
20251040-14.83.96th
20251039-63.2-63.58th
20251047-97.1-83.75th
20251068-261.9-20.84th
20251059-266.8-126.39th
20251071-616.7-295.47th
20251239419.1316.91st 🏆
20251213383.348.610th
20251246100.1132.83rd
2025124362.46.45th
20251235-8.3-51.94th
20251263-40.4219.92nd
20251254-51.110.27th
20251247-61.9-23.58th
20251225-112.2-271.99th
20251237-140.6-264.76th
20251270-185.795.212th
20251249-364.1-218.511th
20251023358.969.53rd
20251054257.4248.96th
20251030120.5-129.67th
20251057102.2196.11st 🏆
2025103843.1-72.99th
2025103322.5-184.44th
202510535.387.42nd
20251051-70.8-64.85th
20251082-357-141.68th
20251095-483.4-7.710th
20251048436.2508.72nd
2025104441281.31st 🏆
20251032255.9111.26th
20251048239.6234.63rd
20251046169.844.810th
20251051154.5132.25th
20251076-186.956.67th
20251082-289.276.14th
20251076-550.4-397.99th
20251034-643.5-847.98th
20251035302.628.75th
20251041183.2106.57th
20251050164.895.42nd
2025105584268.34th
2025103857.9-45.28th
2025105452.2-8.21st 🏆
2025105241.6-339th
202510479.893rd
20251094-419.1-59.46th
20251061-475.8-361.610th
20251222580.9333.31st 🏆
20251224279.3-12.48th
2025123817962.35th
20251258106.7304.53rd
2025124148.8-12.66th
20251240-32.3-157.22nd
20251264-39.9265.112th
20251245-106.5-29.611th
20251231-151.8-310.39th
20251256-219.6-105.810th
20251278-258.8-56.34th
20251264-385.3-281.47th
20251043327.1305.74th
20251044323.8265.53rd
20251031281.614.210th
20251053229.4195.22nd
2025104526.748.89th
20251062-149.494.21st 🏆
20251058-149.9-92.96th
20251037-213.9-390.87th
20251039-215.8-351.28th
20251079-459.9-89.25th
20251429443.93631st 🏆
20251427374.7176.38th
20251444144311.610th
20251435137.445.24th
20251441117.8182.73rd
20251458-30.944.811th
20251444-52.1-201.714th
20251459-54.595.212th
20251440-55.6-134.66th
20251443-82.6-129.35th
20251444-142.5-151.27th
20251437-178.2-291.29th
20251466-236.7-16.82nd
20251463-384.9-293.613th

Next, in the season

A good draft isn't enough.

See your own dot on this chart.

Every draft you have made, graded and health-adjusted.

Run this on my league →